{"product_id":"the-signal-and-the-noise","title":"The Signal and the Noise","description":"\u003cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOur world often seems uncertain, and the negative predictions of supposedly \"important\" people can easily be discouraging. Silver counters this with a refreshingly sober and insightful perspective on the future. Using compelling case studies, he shows why many predictions fail—and what the few truly excellent forecasters do differently. Whether in politics, economics, weather, or pandemics, this book helps us deal with uncertainty more clearly and recognize what is essential amidst the noise. It provides guidance—and encourages us to face the future with greater intelligence.\u003c\/span\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003e \u003cspan\u003eDescription \u0026amp; Portrait:\u003c\/span\u003e \u003cspan\u003eDrawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the \"prediction paradox\": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.\u003c\/span\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003e \u003cspan\u003eIn keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary and dangerous science.\u003c\/span\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003e \u003cspan\u003eSilver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish themselves from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.\u003c\/span\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003e \u003cspan\u003eWith everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism depending on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.\u003c\/span\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003e \u003cspan\u003eAbout the Author:\u003c\/span\u003e \u003cspan\u003eNate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.\u003c\/span\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\"\u003e \u003cspan\u003eProduct details:\u003c\/span\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\n\u003cli dir=\"ltr\"\u003e \u003cspan\u003eEAN: 9780143125082\u003c\/span\u003e\n\u003c\/li\u003e\n\n\u003cli dir=\"ltr\"\u003e Penguin LLC US\u003c\/li\u003e\n\n\u003cli dir=\"ltr\"\u003e English\u003c\/li\u003e\n\n\u003cli dir=\"ltr\"\u003e Paperback\u003c\/li\u003e\n\n\u003cli dir=\"ltr\"\u003e February 2015 – 576 pages\u003c\/li\u003e\n\n\n\u003c\/ul\u003e","brand":"Penguin LLC US","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":55397277434191,"sku":null,"price":19.0,"currency_code":"EUR","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0914\/3228\/8591\/files\/The-signal-and-the-Noise-nate-silver-freisteller.png?v=1769023504","url":"https:\/\/www.studioeasy.de\/en\/products\/the-signal-and-the-noise","provider":"Studio Easy","version":"1.0","type":"link"}